Google Targeting Ads by Credit Score

Neal forwarded me the MediaPost article "Google Tries Hand At Targeting Consumers With Good Credit" which describes how Google has been testing the ability to lay consumer FICO scores on top of its Google Content Network to identify/target people with good credit. Some interesting takeaways:

  • will be offered to Google text and display advertisers.
  • partnered with Compete.com and their panel of 2M opt-in users, which means it will not be "explicit" FICO score information but rather paneled data (Web sites which index well for high credit scores). Compete's sister company integrated the FICO data with searches done by participating consumers who applied for a credit card between January and March 2009.
  • According to their marketing person, "Google's Content Network can reach 70% of credit card applicants with a high FICO score, 87% of mortgage applicants with a high FICO score, and 90% of the people who visit small business sites who have a high FICO score."
  • Consumers with high FICO scores use non-branded search terms more than branded -- approximately 60% of high FICO searchers.

Top Search Advertisers on Google

Interesting stats found this morning at AdQuants, a company that does a lot of SEM analysis. They list the top advertisers for Google, Yahoo and Microsoft by number of advertisements, and by average daily ad spend.

What's most interesting to me is the volume of ad arbitrage revenues Google takes in. I looked at the top 100 advertisers on Google (by daily ad spend) and did a quick SWAG on how much is pure ad arbitrage (they advertise to get traffic, which they monetize thru ads themselves) or affiliate arbitrage (they advertise to get traffic, which they monetize thru affiliate relationships), versus real businesses (United, Nordstrom, HomeDepot, Chase, etc.). Based on this rough analysis, appears that:

  • >19% of Google's ad revenues are based on pure ad arbitrage.
  • >39% of Google's ad revs are based on affiliate arbitrage.
  • Which would mean that the majority of Google's ad revenues are based on arbitrage! For instance, AOL, Yahoo and Ask.com are all in the top 12 advertisers.

Full lists below. And if you click on the links, AdQuants gives you more info.

Continue reading "Top Search Advertisers on Google" »

Current State of Web Privacy, Data Collection, and Information Sharing

Very interesting research report at KnowPrivacy.org on the current state of web privacy, data collection, and information sharing. The project was to compare users' expectations of privacy online and the data collection practices of web sites, identify specific practices that may be harmful or deceptive and attract the attention of government regulators, and to produce recommendations for policymakers.

The key takeaways for me were:

  • Users are concerned about data collection online (duh!), want greater control over their personal information, yet lack the awareness or initiative to do anything about it. (I found it interesting that the report seemed to focus on personally-identifiable information (PII) and not distinguish that from non-PII.)
  • Web bugs/beacons are ubiquitous.  All of the top 50 websites contained at least one web bug at some point in a one month time period. Some had as many as 100.
  • Google is the dominant player in the tracking market; it operates the top three trackers and four of the top 10. Among the top 100 websites this project focused on, Google Analytics appeared on 81 of them. When combined with the other trackers it operates (AdSense, DoubleClick, FriendConnect, etc.), Google was on 92 of the top 100 websites and 348,059 of 393,829 distinct domains reviewed -- that's 88.4% reach across the Web!!
  • Most of the top 50 websites collect information about users and use it for customized advertising.

Other various data points and comments I noted:

  • The number of user complaints made to the various organizations is extremely low relative to the number of Internet users. The FTC had only 6,713 for five years (in the General Privacy category), the PRC had 2,202 for the same period and the COPP had 1,152. TRUSTe had 7,041 that it categorized as privacy related. The largest numbers of complaints at all four of the institutions we received data from were concerned with public displays of personally-identifiable information.
  • Only 23 of the top 50 affirmatively stated that users could have access to some portion of the information the website had collected about them. The remaining 27 policies lacked mention of access or their statements about access were unclear. None of them explicitly offered users the ability to view or delete click stream data.
  • The Network Advertising Initiative (NAI) currently has an opt-out mechanism that requires users to download a cookie, which will let direct advertisers know not to install any third-party tracking cookies on the user‘s computer. This method of opt-out is unacceptable. First, it only governs members of the NAI; tracking companies that are not members will still be able to use cookies and web bugs to collect data about users. Second, users that delete cookies on their machine may delete the NAI cookie inadvertently and open up their machine to third-party tracking again.
  • Only 27 of the top 100 Web sites provided a P3P policy, and only a subset of those were valid according to the P3P standard.

The final recommendations as a result of the research?

  • Regulation by which both websites and third-party trackers must allow users to see all the data that has been collected about them, not just user-provided information. Additionally, users should also be allowed to see with whom their data has been shared.
  • That companies request permission from users before sharing data about them with any outside party, regardless of affiliation.
  • Privacy policies should be readable for average users.
  • Users be given clear and proper notice as to whom the data will be passed, regardless of affiliation or method of sharing.
  • That the practice of third-party tracking be made more transparent.
  • That the FTC create an opt-in standard for enhancement -- the practice of buying information about users from outside sources.
  • That all browser developers provide a Ghostery-like function in their browsers that alerts users to the presence of third-party trackers.

Entrepreneurial Online Marketing

For the 3rd time now, I guest lectured at the University of Washington -- at a class on Entrepreneurial Marketing taught by my good friend Deb Hagen. Whereas in previous classes I covered SEO, search engine marketing, social media marketing and online advertising in general, this time I focused mostly on online marketing. And I covered both "paid" online marketing (advertising) and "earned" online marketing (social media).

For the latter, I gave two local examples, plugging Seattle 2.0 and Meteor Solutions. Marcelo has done an outstanding job using social media and SEO techniques to expand the Seattle 2.0 audience, pageviews, etc. As for Meteor Solutions, I really like how Pete and Ben have teamed together to create a truly unique service for helping marketers measure the sharing of URLs across an online audience.

Anyway, here's the presentation I used in the classroom:

Don't Count Your Chickens ...

When I read today that Jimmy Wales was shutting down Wikia Search, my mind immediately recalled the Fast Company article in their December 2007 issue. He was on the cover, and the tone was very cocky and arrogant: "Google's worst nightmare". I'm not sure they'd even launched yet!

Wikia

I don't care who you are, or maybe it's merely "not my style". I just don't think it's wise to make such a big splash PR-wise in a market that is clearly dominated by one player. Growing a start-up and being an entrepreneur is so much about the art of the pivot -- maneuvering around myriad market factors. In my opinion, it's so much more important to immerse yourself in the market and quietly make a difference *before* you make loud claims.

Latest from the World of Online Advertising

Catching up on some blog posts and thought I'd note a few things that caught my eye:

  • Roughly 8% of the total ad dollars in the US is spent online, while consumers spend about 30% of their time surfing the Web, according to MediaPost.
  • About 85% of total ad dollars spent online in the UK is performance-driven, compared to 50% in the US.
  • ValueClick launched ActiveAds, which allows marketers to display customized messages in ad creative w/out the need to develop and manage multiple creative units. Some launch though ... there is nothing on their Web site about this!
  • eMarketer forecasts global ad spending on social networks to increase 17% in 2009 over 2008, revised down from their previous estimate of 32%. Increase in US only social network advertising is expected to be 10.2%, reaching $1.3B. MySpace and Facebook account for two-thirds of this in the US.
  • According to Nielson Online, time spent on social networks and blogs grew 3x faster than the overall Internet rate, and are now the 4th most popular online category -- AHEAD of personal email (and behind search, portals and PC software).
  • Read in eMarketer that 41% of US Internet users surveyed said they paid more attention to advertising that was personalized. And nearly the same proportion of respondents (39%) said they were more willing to click on such personalized ads.

Track Links to your Blog

Catching up on blog posts and saw that Jason Cohen has created a new free service called LinksFor.Us. Plug in a URL and it gives you link-sharing stats such as:

  • Every time posted on Reddit, votes up and down, the subreddit, number of comments
  • Every time posted to Digg: votes, comments, categories, titles, descriptions
  • Del.icio.us bookmark count, with tag list
  • Mixx and Sphinn stats
  • Twitters of the link plus the TinyURL and several other shortened forms.

So of course I check the stats for my blog and while completely unimpressive (as expected), I was pleasantly surprised to see that 3 of the last 10 posts have been bookmarked on Delicio.us. Huh -- had no idea!
LinksForUs

Swing for the Fences or Focus on 1st Base?

Who is more likely to produce long-term shareholder value -- the entrepreneur who raises too much investment capital, or the entrepreneur who funds growth through profits alone?

First time entrepreneurs often have skewed visions of "how it all works". Their perceptions are often shaped by the numerous successes that get touted about the media, rather than by the 1000-fold number of failures. It makes the "accidental success" of YouTube appear reachable, or at least "just as likely" as any other startup.

One of the things that entrepreneurs usually believe is that once they have an idea, they need investment -- that's just how it works, right? Once they start to talk to investors though, as well as advisors and other folks in the startup community, the questions usually come up ... is this a lifestyle business or a "swing for the fences" big market opportunity? A "lifestyle business" is one which you intend to keep running for a decade or two -- like my Dad's optometry practice, for instance, or my brother's event audio/visual recording business -- typically an owner-managed business in which the profits are used solely to support the ongoing lifestyle of the proprietor.

Then there are the "swing for the fences" big market opportunities. These are the startups with big goals, where the entrepreneurs focus on a market opportunity >$100M. To get there, most companies on this track sell ownership in their company at some stage of their business to raise the capital necessary to build their company. Some companies even raise huge amounts of venture capital, at a hefty dilution mind you, before they even arguably HAVE a business. (Twitter comes to mind ...) Investors are compelled by visions of a healthy return on their investment, and in the latter case also by extremely savvy entrepreneurs.

For whatever reason, I'm NOT a "lifestyle business" kinda guy. I'm only interested in building a company with a compelling market value and resulting shareholder ROI, but as a founder I'm ALSO uninterested in immediate dilution down to single digit % ownership. I want as much equity in the company as possible.

I learned long ago that the best way to build personal wealth and shareholder value is through "bootstrapping". Bootstrapping is the art of building companies with very little outside capital/investment. I'm proud of my bootstrapping skills actually, which I've developed over four startups now, yet I've also realized that outside capital is also essential to developing/realizing a substantial market opportunity.

The reality is that there is a middle ground. Bootstrapping your way 100% to IPO, while honorable, is very difficult and uncommon. If the market opportunity is truly there, being under-capitalized will usually result in missing the market window of opportunity. Conversely, raising too much capital too early rarely results in long-term shareholder value. In other words, given a large market opportunity -- a startup that raises too much investment capital is just as likely to fail (to generate shareholder value) as a startup that doesn't take any investment capital

I've been building Others Online based on what I thought to be an appropriate balance of equity financing and bootstrapping ("sweat equity" financing). Unfortunately we're still not profitable and thus reliant on investment capital at a time when the market opportunity is large and we're landing large customers, but market conditions are unstable and investment capital has dried up. And the other day I was talking to one of my investors, who literally wrote the book on bootstrapping, about our status as a company. He insisted that there "has to be a way" to generate more cash from our pipeline immediately. The only way I can see to do that is to shift our business model in the short-term, and I worry that doing so may negatively impact our ability to achieve the "big market opportunity".

I keep thinking about this. Is it possible to "swing for the fences" (big market opportunity) at the same time as focusing on 1st base (getting to cash flow breakeven)? Or are the two incompatible? I suppose it depends on the market opportunity, but I'd argue most high-value windows of opportunity in the market are open for a limited period of time. Rarely do you not have competition eyeballing the same opportunity, and sufficient funding is generally a prerequisite to nailing these windows of opportunity.

Market leadership positions are always attained as a result of execution. Financing is not execution. However, financing provides the means to develop the necessary components to execution: team, timing, marketing, and product development. Since paths to success are rarely a straight line, financing also helps recovery from bad decisions (on any of the above). Under-capitalized companies are therefore at greater risk. That said, bootstrapping is also essential. It teaches you to make your mistakes quickly and therefore least costly. Bootstrapping is good execution.

2009 is going to be a difficult time for companies who are "swinging for the fences" but aren't financed for the next 12-18 months.  If you're one of them, like we are, it seems you can only either change your game plan and just focus on 1st base, or merge your team with a team in a far better position to hit the home run.

Data Mining is the Future of Advertising

Loved this comment from the Chris DeWolfe (CEO of MySpace) in an interview with TechCrunch:

Michael Arrington: Thanks very much for your time. I know you are literally running to a session. What’s your session on?

Chris DeWolfe: It’s on data mining.

Michael Arrington: Data mining? That sounds really boring

Chris DeWolfe: No that’s actually the future of advertising.

Couldn't agree more. Nor could Neal, I'm sure!

Why Ad Networks Need to Co-op Data

With the understanding that online advertisers are shifting towards buying specific audience behavior instead of impressions by the tonnage, it must certainly follow that access to user behavior is critical to ad networks' ability to segment and sell on that basis. That access generally comes in the form of raw page view data gathered across their network.

I took a look at the top 40 ad networks in the US in December 2008, according to Comscore data. While Comscore measures uniques, % reach and page views per month, they don't measure "page view reach" or the number of "touch points" per user (which is my term for any individual behavioral data point per user). The more data points they have for each user, and the more reach across the Web, the stronger their position insofar as behavioral profiling and targeting. So I calculated that myself in the table below.

Here are a few things that stood out for me:

  • Yahoo has access to the most user behavior, reaching 51% of all pages viewed, and with almost 1,500 touchpoints per user per month
  • Platform-A and Google are not far behind, each with more than 10x the behavioral data that Specific Media has.
  • Most of the ad networks listed don't have even 5% of the access to page views that Yahoo and Google do.
  • Only if you combine all the page view data from Specific Media and every one of the networks in positions #6 through #40, do you approach the reach of either Yahoo or Google.

Insofar as behavioral targeting, the "rest" of these networks aren't competing with each other as much as they're competing with the "big 3". In order to compete most effectively with the "big 3", ad networks should co-op their raw behavioral data and thereby compete (better) as they always have -- on the basis of their sales process, ad operations, and publisher network.

Top40adnetworks

Note: seems that Comscore doesn't include ad networks who haven't subscribed in some way to their service.